1. California
California has always had a rebellious streak, and if the U.S. fell apart, it could easily strike out on its own. With the world’s fifth-largest economy, it has the financial muscle to function independently, but its internal divisions could make things messy. The rural north and the wealthy tech hubs of the Bay Area don’t always see eye to eye, and neither do Los Angeles and the agricultural Central Valley. If California were to leave, it might not leave as one united state, but as multiple competing regions.
At the same time, the state faces major challenges that could push it toward crisis, according to Eric Holthaus from The Guardian. The cost of living is skyrocketing, water shortages are getting worse, and wildfires are an ever-present danger. If federal support disappeared, California’s massive social programs might collapse, creating chaos in cities. While it could theoretically go it alone, the transition wouldn’t be smooth.
2. Texas
Texas has never been shy about its independent spirit, and if America fractured, it might be one of the first to walk away. It was its own republic once, and some Texans still talk about secession as a real possibility. The state has a strong economy, fueled by energy, tech, and agriculture, making it one of the few states that could sustain itself. But Texas is deeply divided politically, with urban centers leaning blue and rural areas staying fiercely red.
Natural disasters like hurricanes, heat waves, and power grid failures also make Texas vulnerable, according to Colin Bogle’s article in the Texas Observer. The state’s electrical grid is separate from the rest of the country, which already proved disastrous during the 2021 winter storm. If Texas had to stand alone, maintaining infrastructure and responding to crises could become overwhelming. While it might be one of the first to leave, it could struggle to hold itself together afterward.
3. Florida
Florida’s booming economy and massive tourism industry give it the resources to survive, but its geography makes it incredibly vulnerable, Don Brown writes in The Gainesville Sun. Rising sea levels and stronger hurricanes threaten coastal cities like Miami, Tampa, and Jacksonville. If the federal government were no longer around to provide disaster relief, the state could face serious trouble. Wealthy residents might flee, leaving behind those who can’t afford to escape worsening conditions.
Politically, Florida is a battleground state with sharp divisions, which could turn into outright chaos in a national crisis. The state also has a huge retiree population that depends on Social Security and Medicare—programs that could disappear if the country fell apart. Without those safety nets, Florida could see a humanitarian crisis unfold rapidly. While it has the money to function independently, its physical and social vulnerabilities make it a wild card.
4. Alaska
Alaska is physically disconnected from the rest of the U.S., which would make things complicated if the country collapsed. Its harsh winters, rugged terrain, and reliance on imports mean it could struggle to maintain basic necessities. Most of the state’s economy comes from oil, but without federal infrastructure and military bases, that revenue could take a hit. If supply chains break down, many Alaskans could find themselves in survival mode quickly, according to Taylor Holshouser from the Wilson Center.
There’s also the question of who might take an interest in Alaska if the U.S. fell apart. Its proximity to Russia could make it a strategic target, and China might see it as an economic opportunity. The state has a strong sense of independence, but it also depends on federal support more than most people realize. While Alaskans are tough, they might not have the numbers or resources to hold out for long.
5. Hawaii
Hawaii is another state that’s geographically isolated, and that could be a blessing or a curse. It has a strong local culture that could help it function independently, but it also relies heavily on imports for food, fuel, and other essentials, as explained by Li Cohen from CBS News. If supply chains collapsed, Hawaii could face severe shortages in a matter of weeks. Tourism is its economic lifeline, and without a stable national government, that industry could take a major hit.
There’s also the historical factor—Hawaii was an independent kingdom before the U.S. annexed it, and some Native Hawaiians still advocate for sovereignty. If America fell apart, that movement could gain momentum, leading Hawaii to reestablish itself as its own nation. But even if it did, the challenges of self-sufficiency would be enormous. Hawaii’s survival would depend on how quickly it could adapt to a new reality.
6. New York
New York has the economic power to function independently, but its deep reliance on federal funding and interstate trade could cause serious problems. The state’s infrastructure, from the subway system to its bridges and roads, needs constant maintenance, much of which is supported by federal money. Without that support, New York City in particular could face a rapid decline. A breakdown in law enforcement or public services could push the city into chaos.
Beyond that, the state is politically divided between liberal urban centers and more conservative rural areas. If the U.S. fell apart, New York could see internal struggles that make governance difficult. Wall Street and the financial sector might try to keep things running, but instability could drive businesses and wealthy residents elsewhere. While New York has the resources to survive, it would face serious growing pains.
7. Louisiana
Louisiana is one of the most vulnerable states when it comes to natural disasters, and without federal disaster relief, things could get ugly fast. Hurricanes, rising sea levels, and an aging infrastructure system already make life challenging. The state’s economy relies heavily on oil, shipping, and tourism, all of which could suffer in a national crisis. If major ports shut down or oil revenue dried up, Louisiana could spiral into economic decline.
Corruption has long been an issue in the state’s government, which could make a crisis even worse. In the absence of federal oversight, Louisiana might struggle to maintain order and services. The state also has some of the highest poverty rates in the country, meaning many residents could be left without resources. If the U.S. fractured, Louisiana would likely be one of the hardest-hit states.
8. Mississippi
Mississippi is already one of the poorest states in the country, and without federal funding, its economy could collapse. Many residents rely on federal assistance programs, which would disappear if the U.S. government fell apart. The state also has one of the weakest healthcare systems in the nation, which could lead to a full-blown crisis. With limited industry outside of agriculture, Mississippi could struggle to sustain itself.
Racial and economic divides in the state could create further instability in a national crisis. Infrastructure problems, including unreliable roads and water systems, would become even worse without federal support. If Mississippi couldn’t keep its economy and government functioning, people might leave in large numbers. The state could quickly become one of the most unlivable places in a post-collapse America.
9. West Virginia
West Virginia has long struggled with economic hardships, and without federal support, it could collapse quickly. The decline of the coal industry has already left many parts of the state impoverished, with few alternative industries to replace lost jobs. Many residents rely on federal aid programs like Social Security, Medicaid, and food assistance, all of which would disappear in a national breakdown. If businesses shut down and jobs vanished, West Virginia could see mass migration out of the state.
Geographically, the mountainous terrain could make survival both easier and harder. On one hand, remote communities could hunker down and rely on self-sufficiency. On the other hand, the state’s poor infrastructure and lack of modern economic hubs would make long-term stability difficult. West Virginia is one of the most rural states in the country, and without external support, many of its communities could become ghost towns.
10. Arizona
Arizona’s biggest problem in a post-collapse scenario would be its water supply—or lack of it. The state relies heavily on the Colorado River, which is already drying up due to overuse and climate change. Without federal water management and infrastructure support, major cities like Phoenix and Tucson could become uninhabitable within a few years. The desert climate makes Arizona one of the most unsustainable places to live without modern infrastructure.
Politically, Arizona is deeply divided, which could make any attempt at independence even messier. There’s also the issue of border security—without federal oversight, conflicts over immigration and law enforcement could spiral out of control. The state has strong military and aerospace industries, but if those collapsed, Arizona would have little to fall back on. While some rural communities might survive through self-sufficiency, the major cities would struggle to keep going.
11. Nevada
Nevada is similar to Arizona in that it’s heavily reliant on resources that might not be available in a post-collapse America. The state gets most of its water from Lake Mead, which is already dangerously low. If the federal government were no longer managing water distribution, Nevada’s biggest cities—Las Vegas and Reno—could run dry. Without a steady water supply, mass migration out of the state would be inevitable.
The economy is also fragile since it’s built around tourism and gambling, industries that depend on stability. If the U.S. fell apart, people wouldn’t be flocking to Las Vegas for vacations anymore. The state’s vast desert landscape would make self-sufficiency nearly impossible for urban dwellers. While some rural areas might hold out, Nevada as a whole could become unlivable.
12. South Carolina
South Carolina has a strong cultural identity and historical ties to secession—after all, it was the first state to secede during the Civil War. If the U.S. started to fall apart, some parts of the state might see it as an opportunity to break away again. However, the state’s economy is heavily tied to federal military bases, ports, and agriculture, all of which depend on national stability. If those collapsed, South Carolina could face economic disaster.
Hurricanes are another major threat, and without federal disaster relief, coastal cities like Charleston and Myrtle Beach could struggle to rebuild. South Carolina also has some of the highest poverty rates in the country, meaning many residents would be left vulnerable in a crisis. While the state’s rural communities are tight-knit and might band together, urban areas could face serious instability. If the U.S. fell apart, South Carolina might try to go its own way, but it wouldn’t be easy.
13. New Mexico
New Mexico is another state that would struggle due to water shortages, economic instability, and geographic challenges. Much of the state is rural, and while that could be an advantage in some ways, it also means there’s little infrastructure to support self-sufficiency. The economy relies heavily on federal jobs, including military bases and national laboratories. If those were to disappear, unemployment could skyrocket.
The state also has a high poverty rate, which could lead to humanitarian crises in a post-collapse scenario. Border security would become an even bigger issue, and conflicts could arise over resources. While some Native American reservations and rural communities might be able to sustain themselves, the larger cities would struggle. Without outside support, New Mexico could quickly become one of the hardest-hit states.
14. Illinois
Illinois might seem like a surprising addition to this list, but Chicago’s dominance makes it a unique case. The state’s economy is deeply tied to the city, which depends on national trade, finance, and government funding. If America collapsed, Chicago’s crime and poverty issues could explode into full-blown chaos. With one of the largest urban populations in the country, maintaining order without federal support would be a massive challenge.
Outside of Chicago, rural Illinois is heavily agricultural, but farmers still rely on national and international markets to sell their goods. If trade networks fell apart, the state’s farming economy could collapse. Political tensions between urban and rural areas could also create divisions that make governance difficult. Illinois might not be the first to go, but if the U.S. fell apart, it would face enormous struggles to keep functioning.
